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Dear IEEFA Asia Community, Welcome to the latest edition of the IEEFA Asia newsletter. In recent weeks, our team has published analyses and insights focused on the latest developments in Asia’s renewable energy sector, South Korea’s COP28 pledge, and the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) investment packages. Highlights include:
At COP28 this year, South Korea backed the pledges to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. They are setting aggressive targets for their energy transition, which would likely reduce their consumption of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, this does not align with their ₩11.3 trillion (US$8.7 billion) investment in LNG infrastructure.
Renewables have grown at an impressive pace in recent years, however, there is a pressing need for further action as significant obstacles remain. These challenges include uneven geographical adoption of renewables, a rising cost of capital discouraging investment, inadequate funding for essential infrastructure such as grids and storage, which undermines the benefits of renewable growth, and non-financial barriers hindering a faster adoption of renewables.
Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) financing proposals from the International Partners Group (IPG) governments could be catalytic in transforming Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Africa’s energy economies. However, much of the money takes the form of business-as-usual development finance, making it unlikely that JETP monies will make a dent in each country’s ambitious US$100 billion-plus transition plans.
Looking ahead to 2024, our newsletter will continue to bring you valuable insights into the strategies and innovations shaping Asia's energy future, including a focus on emerging challenges and opportunities. As the year ends, we wish all our readers a safe and joyful holiday season.
Paige Nguyen
Regional Director, Asia Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
Latest Releases
Financing the JETP: Making sense of the packages
Grant Hauber
December 22
JETP needs to be a true partnership between financiers and beneficiaries, with the mutual goal of large-scale, near-term, outcome-oriented plans for decarbonization. JETP negotiations would benefit from having fewer, better-coordinated financing packages, comprised of larger amounts of money that can be flexibly deployed in support of each country’s JETP investment plans.
Lessons from COP28: South Korea's energy transition pledges will reduce the need for LNG investments
Michelle (Chaewon) Kim
December 14
South Korea’s ambitious energy transition goals are likely to reduce its LNG intake, exacerbating the underutilization of existing and proposed LNG import terminals. This could impede South Korea's swift transition to a more affordable and domestically sourced renewable energy.
Renewable energy is having a good year, but challenges loom ahead
Ramnath Iyer
December 11
While renewables have grown at an impressive pace in recent years, much more remains to be done. Challenges persist in the form of unequal geographical adoption of renewables, rising cost of capital that deters investment, and underinvestment in related areas such as grid and storage.
This year's final newsletter features our most viewed and downloaded reports, showcasing the pivotal insights and trends that have been instrumental in driving discussions about energy transition both regionally and worldwide. These reports, authored by our team, have played a significant role in shaping the global dialogue on energy transition.
Global LNG Outlook 2023-27
Sam Reynolds & Global IEEFA Analysts
February 15
Although LNG markets may remain tight for several years, the global LNG market will see a tidal wave of new projects coming online in 2025-27 — creating the potential for an extended supply glut and a return to the low global prices.
Norway’s Sleipner and Snøhvit CCS: Industry models or cautionary tales?
Grant Hauber
June 14
Sleipner and Snøhvit demonstrate carbon capture and storage is not without material ongoing risks that may ultimately negate some or all the benefits it seeks to create.
Business model innovations drive the Philippines' energy transition
Ramnath Iyer
August 22
The Philippines’ renewable energy sector has seen enhanced interest and notable growth in the past two years. New and incumbent players with track records in infrastructure and utilities have begun to accelerate investments in renewable energy. The sector is dominated by local private-sector players, many of whom are listed on the stock exchange.
The South Korean government’s climate targets project that the share of LNG in the power mix will fall to 9.3% in 2036, from 27.5% in 2022. Based on IEEFA’s calculations, the regasification facility utilization would decrease drastically from 29.48% in 2023 to 19.78% in 2036.
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